What does this winter look like now that we have moved into an El Nino climate pattern? For many of us across the South, things look very different from the drought conditions we saw in September and October. Thankfully, the folks from the Southeast Drought Early Warning System (DEWS) have assembled the helpful summary that we are sharing below. You should really subscribe to their regional drought update emails to stay on top of drought conditions within your area. Read the summary below to learn more.
Summary by the Southeast Drought Early Warning System (DEWS):
What Might We Expect This Winter in the Southeast?
The November 28 Southeast Monthly Webinar Series included a presentation from Michelle LโHeureux at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center on the current El Niรฑo, with a focus on the Southeast. Key takeaways include:
- A strong El Niรฑo is already in place and is currently strengthening. There is a 1 in 3 chance of a historically strong El Niรฑo that rivals our strongest El Niรฑo events.
- The expected peak (of sea surface temperatures in the Niรฑo-3.4 region) is during the NovemberโJanuary season, but impacts over the United States will lag into the spring seasons.
- Over the Southeastern region, above-average precipitation (rainfall and snow) is likely. Above-average temperatures are favored toward the north, with โequal chancesโ for any outcome (below/near/above temperatures) over most of the region.
- Expected seasonal impacts are always probabilistic (โ% chance ofโ) and never guaranteed. In the Southeast, remember โthe bustโ in 1957โ58!
North Carolina Outlook
The annual winter outlook from the North Carolina Climate Office looks at what the emerging El Niรฑo could mean for North Carolina and what North Carolina’s weather could look like over the season ahead.
How does El Niรฑo influence winter precipitation over the U.S.?
After the last three winters of La Niรฑa conditions, the tropical Pacific is looking much different this year, with a strong El Niรฑo likely this winter. Read the monthly ENSO Blog to better understand why this El Niรฑo often leads to wetter than normal conditions for much of the Southeast.
